Mycronic-Axxon Deal a Symbolic Milestone

Mycronic’s purchase of electronics dispensing OEM Shenzhen Axxon Automation Co. today signals a novel, if inevitable, milestone in the SMT processing equipment history: Chinese process equipment OEMs have reached the point where they are sufficiently viable and significant for Western companies to invest in.

Certainly there are no shortage of domestic Chinese OEMs. But relatively few have reached the technology or market share level needed to draw the interest of Western buyers.

No more.

The Last VCR

The news that the supposed last maker of VCRs, Funai Electric, will cease production on the video medium at the end of this month took me back to this blog item I wrote in 2009.

That’s when I retired my previous VCR, a Hitachi VT 2000A workshorse that served me well for 21 (!) years.

They say otherwise, but I’m still convinced that my first college roommates invited me to live with them because I was the only one they knew who had one. Happily, the friendship has outlasted the machines.

So sayonara to one of my favorite technologies!

P.S. I still have a few blank cassettes, if you know anyone who is looking.

‘Mike Buetow Humor’

When the reader titles their email “Subject: Mike Buetow humor,” you know I’m opening that one first.

Reader TE writes:

Just going through the July 2016 issue when I came across two (well, three really) very interesting announcements.

On page 14 is a small blurb in the first column: “Canadian mining firm First Majestic Silver says a surge in smartphones and tablets is creating a silver shortage that could send prices up 775%.” Now go over to page 15, first column and you will see not one, but two different articles, one on smartphone sales slowing by 2.6% and the second that tablet shipments will decline by 9.6 % this year.

These opposing announcements seem to be right up your alley regarding the irony of our industry, and even perhaps our times. Both can’t be true, so now I am wondering if either is. It’s a big lol from my corner.

Well played, TE: I loved the note, and your observation absolutely appeals to my sense of irony!

I can possibly account for why both could be true. The silver market, like any commodity or precious metal index, changes daily and can be highly speculative. If you look at the Metals Index chart on pg. 15, the Handy and Harman Silver index jumped 15% between Apr. 4 and May 9 this year, then fell 6% by the end of May.

Second, smartphone growth appears to be declining in terms of its rate, but still rising overall. So growth this year will be 3% instead of 11%. I wouldn’t call that a “surge,” but who knows what goes through the minds of those good persons at First Majestic Silver. Also, overall handheld phones shipments are actually growing — probably in the high single digits this year. And it’s also possible that silver speculators are guessing there will be a spike in the second half because of new models that will overcome the lackluster first half sales.

As for the tablets, well, I don’t have a good rationale for that one. We have two in my house and both are used as expensive coasters.

All that said, I highly doubt the silver price will “surge” (or even grow) 775%. At least not because of electronics demand, anyway. After all, election years do play funny tricks on things.

But that’s a column for another day.

Mel Breaks Loose

A fond farewell to Mel Parrish, who retired this week from STI Electronics.

I’ve known Mel (below, right) for more than 20 years, back to my days at IPC and his at the EMPF in Indianapolis. Through his stints at the Air Force, US Navy (China Lake), and finally STI, Mel has been a constant at the solder and training standards and certification programs. He’s also been one of those rare preternaturally even-keeled fellows you could rely on for technical advice, or a good story, or just some thoughtful wisdom.

STI president and CEO Dave Raby (above, left) said that while he’s happy for Mel, he has been “a vital part of our organization for many years and will be missed.”

I think the industry would agree in spades.

Hacked Off

It’s been just over three years since the US government indicted a former hacker at a major defense contractor for, ironically, spilling reams of classified information for all the world to see.

In doing so Edward Snowden irreversibly opened the eyes of the public to both the capacity of the US to plumb the world’s communication channels and the sheer volume of information it was collecting (or may still be collecting) on a routine basis.

But it also begged the question of why aren’t government networks more secure. Certainly there are hacks and attacks taking place at a near-constant frequency. Why are these channels still hooked up to the world at large? Would not the world’s respective defense departments be better served if they operated on secure, private networks that weren’t, for example, routed on common platforms? Put another way, isn’t the cost of being digitally pick-pocketed far greater than the nuisance of having to work on multiple systems?

Setting up systems as such wouldn’t prevent a rogue operator like Snowden from successfully spilling the beans, but it would create a far superior barrier from the reach of foreign hands than is currently in place.

In light of all the IP and security concerns so prevalent today, one would think we’d be wise to no only close the barn doors before the horse is pilfered, but also move the barn away from the farm once and for all.

TTM Again?

Not quite 18 years ago, a pair of venture capital firms bought a small Washington fab shop named Power Circuits. The following year those two firms, Thayer Capital Partners and Brockway Moran & Partners, added Power Circuits in Santa Ana, CA, to its stable. It renamed the fabricators TTM Technologies.

Today TTM is one of the largest PCB fabricators in the world, with revenues of around $2.5 billion across 25 facilities and 30,000 employees. It made some of the largest acquisitions in industry history, and unlike some of its competitors, made those acquisitions work.

It’s not without some irony, then, that one of the former directors of Power Circuits has teamed with a venture capital fund to acquire a pair of Southern California fabricators this week. 

History repeating?

Shane Whiteside, who was general manager and director of operations at Power Circuits, rose with TTM, eventually becoming executive vice president and COO before departing the firm in 2013.

With his background, Whiteside certainly would know which plants to target on the West Coast of the US. I haven’t been through KCA Electronics, but Marcel Electronics is one of the finest shops PCD&F has had the pleasure of visiting. I’m eager to see how this evolves.

Manufacturing Loss Costs More than Just Jobs

An ex Photocircuits engineer says the gutting of US manufacturing has led to a huge shift in ownership of US assets, with dire consequences for all Americans.

“With only a very small manufacturing base left, there is a small need to make capital investments in these businesses. Capital investments are what drive productivity,” writes Jason Tillberg.

He’s preaching to the choir, no doubt, but I always find it interesting when folks support their  with details. In this case, Tillberg points to the massive transfer of ownership of US assets to foreign entities — remember Ross Perot’s “giant sucking sound” metaphor? — as a real cost paid by Americans through its inability (unwillingness?) to compete in manufacturing.

I find his thesis a bit incomplete and scattered, but he makes an important observation on capital investment and the disincentives to invest in a shrinking manufacturing base.

(As an aside, Tillberg talks about his experiences at Photocircuits in another piece on productivity written a few years back.)

Calculating PCB Fabrication Costs (Watch Out!)

We get this question a lot: How much per square inch for a 4-layer board? (or double sided, or 6 layers … same question).  I won’t hold you to it, I promise. Right….

We understand that it is difficult to provide the boss with a project cost roll up if you do not have the board cost estimate. If you do a lot of designs you may have a feel for it or you may refer to a similar board cost from a past project. This actually can be very effective.

I have even seen online cost calculators that presume to give an accurate number.  Knowing what I know about PCB pricing, however, I can say that it just ain’t so.

Here is why calculating PCB cost is tricky and dangerous ground.

The biggest cost drivers for a bare board are:

  1. Who are you? Are you a stranger or newcomer, or do you have established relationships with board vendors? Most of us manufacturers figure the total dollar volume somewhere into the pricing equation.
  1. Board size. Square area of the board, plus the square inches of material remaining on the panel after routing your unique board shape. (You are charged by the processed panel).
  1. Production volumes in the 10 boards to 1000 boards range will have a very steep cost curve. The curve flattens out as the order rises above 1000 and gets very unpredictable at 100,000. Who you are begins to make a big difference at this level, along with your negotiating skills.

All manufacturers have a floor or minimum and it is best to ask how many boards you can get for the minimum charge. Some of the internet guys will sell one or five at a very low seemingly low cost, but your boards will have to fit perfectly into their narrow technical profile.

  1. Delivery days requirement. This can be very steep cost curve in the one to 10 day requirement range. After 10 days, little influence unless the volumes are large. We turn boards from our China factory in 10 working days and small expedite fees for five days. (Yes, we turn boards from China in five days.)
  1. Manufactured location. USA, China, Europe, Taiwan. This is usually a preferential decision, but clearly, China has the edge, followed by Taiwan. Differences can be great.
  1. Number of layers. No surprise here. From double-sided to four layers, costs will go up about 60%. From four layer to six layer add another 50%. For six to eight layers add 30%. Keep in mind that each added layer is the equivalent of a double-sided board added to the stack.  Also, remember that high-layer-count boards are often accompanied by tough technical requirements and buried vias.
  1. Technology stretching requirements, like exotic materials, super small geometries, buried vias, etc. This can be steep or moderate depending upon the manufacturer and the difficulty. Tg requirements will have a moderate impact.
  1. Surface finish, like HASL, ENIG, tin, OSP. If you can handle OSP, it is the lowest cost, followed by HASL, then ENIG. ENIG is so common these days that for low volumes, it can be as low cost as HASL.

Not the following:

  1. Number of drill hits; however, the total number drill tools used can drive costs up. Ten tools is the preferred maximum and usually can do the job.
  2. Presence or absence of a silk screen legend. (Minor influence.)
  3. Always insist on testing at no charge.

So, now think about putting all of this into an algorithm and coming up with a defensible, unchangeable answer. That is a dangerous guessing game.

My best advice is this: Get preliminary Gerbers to your preferred vendors and tell them they are preliminary. If the effort is conceptual, provide a simple description answering the cost drivers above and email your proposed or preferred vendors for a quote. (To make it easy for you, we offer a template. Go to precisionpcbs.com/pcb-manufacturing and click on the “Fab Drawing Template.”)