In China, A Bet on Tariffs

Several news stories are breaking today about President Trump’s anticipated tariffs on scores of goods from China. On the list of items that will see new import duties is consumer electronics.

The effects of this move have the potential to go far beyond the administration’s stifling of a series of high-profile acquisition attempts, including Singapore-based Broadcom’s attempted not-so-friendly takeover of Qualcomm, or that of a Chinese investment firm’s deal for Lattice Semiconductor. One wonders, if the TTM-Meadville deal were in play today, what the ruling from the feds would have been.

China has successfully reached its goal of the “world’s factory,” but is it good for the US — or the world, for that matter — to have so much critical manufacturing concentrated in one place? I would argue no. Foreign companies get a raw deal trying to access the China market. The rules are set up to favor domestic companies, the government’s reach extends into all levels of private businesses, and the judicial system is weak, at best. As we have noted before, in China, “copyright” means “the right to copy.”

The US is the only economic body, except perhaps the European Union, capable of forcing China’s hand. China will not change on its own.

It would take a better fortune teller than me to predict how this will play out. On principle, some critics are primed to dismiss the administration’s move. But governments interfere in economic systems all the time. The entire US import system is one giant hurdle. So is Europe’s. It says here the risk is worth taking.

 

In Trade War of Words, Huawei Goes on Offensive

“Huawei won’t move manufacturing to America.”

The headline sounds, well, weird, almost like “Tiffany’s not robbed.”

But the crux of it is a tale of global politics and business tactics growing ever-more-fascinating by the day.

In short, at the Consumer Electronics Show this week, the head of Huawei’s consumer business group issued a statement saying the smartphone maker doesn’t think much of the incoming Trump administration’s habit of calling out companies that build and import product to the US.

While Trump has thus far had mostly automakers in his sights (GM, Toyota, Ford), Apple has been the poster child for the war of words over trade. By speaking out at CES, the world’s largest technology trade show, Huawei is among the first companies, and likely the biggest, to go on the offensive.

“If [companies] move all manufacturing to the U.S., some manufacturing is not good for US companies, because costs will likely increase,” said Richard Yu, who was also a keynote at the show. “If you move all that [low-cost] manufacturing to the US, you’ll damage the US.”

Huawei has an uneasy history with the US. Its head is a former Chinese military officer Ren Zhengfei, and the company was banned from supplying telecom equipment to US government buyers after a Congressional committee accused the firm of spying on behalf of China. It is also the third-largest smartphone OEM in the world, and given the easy nature of using those devices as tools for capturing user habits and data, that is hardly less troubling.

More complex, Huawei, like Apple, depends heavily on Foxconn as a contract manufacturer. Although based in Taiwan, Foxconn founder and chairman Terry Gou is a strong supporter of China. He also is reportedly considering a run for president in his native Taiwan, a move that if successful would likely strengthen the ties between the island and mainland — and potentially further complicate already precarious relations between China and the US.

Until the new administration is officially installed in two weeks, the machinations are mostly bluster. But the chatter shows no signs of abating, and the campaigns for — and now, against — Made in America are just starting to heat up.