Smoke and Mirrors?

Apple has cut ties with Guangdong Real Faith PZ Electron on the grounds that it was using scores of underage workers.

So while noting that this is a step in the right direction, is it cynical to suggest that Apple’s decision to fire a fairly run-of-the-mill supplier for using underage workers while basically ignoring its much larger (but harder) problem of Foxconn was promotional in nature?

 

1 Billion Reasons for Disbelief

Where do they come up with these numbers?

DigiTimes is now reporting that Foxconn will open a pair of R&D centers in Japan at a total cost of $1 billion. Unless Foxconn is planning to break into wafer fabrication — and it’s not — $1 billion is an otherworldly sum. It’s certainly far greater than would be needed for even the most statest state-of-the-art facility. (Not to mention all those Japanese OEMs that are looking to sell their own internal operations on the cheap.)

This comes on the heels of the proclamation that Foxconn plans to ultimately invest $10 billion in a large-volume production center in Indonesia. Again, given that there are only a handful of EMS/ODM companies that even do $10 billion a year in sales, and that the market for SMT manufacturing equipment is less than $2 billion worldwide, these estimates suggest land costs in Serang compare with those of downtown Tokyo. (They don’t, and even an operation the size of Foxconn’s reported vision — a 1,000 hectare [3.86 sq. mile] industrial city — would cost only a relatively affordable $1.1 billion for the raw land.)

Sorry, but either there’s some gamesmanship going on, or someone needs a new currency converter.

 

Foxconn Moves Intriguing

There is a lot of speculation regarding Apple’s stated intent to build a manufacturing site in the US. This is not a major move. Only 200 jobs will be created. I cannot help but wonder if this is related to Foxconn’s (Apple’s major supply-chain device manufacturer) recent offer to help train Americans in manufacturing technologies. Is there a greater strategy about to be implemented? Is it the precursor to a potentially much larger move as costs continue to rise in China? America is still the major market for Apple where new products are introduced. Do Tim Cook and Terry Gou have a larger strategic plan? As Sherlock might say to Watson, “Methinks a new game is afoot.”

The November contraction of the US manufacturing sector does not bode well for the domestic electronics industry. According to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the index declined to the lowest level in three years, as national factory activity fell to 49.5% in November from 51.7% in October. Expectations had been for a level of 51.3%. Levels below 50% indicate a contraction. These figures are reflected in recent IPC book-to-bill ratios. The news in Japan is also discouraging for that nation’s interconnect industries. The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed negative growth for the country’s electronic industry in September. Not only is board production dropping, but so are board prices. Panasonic and Sharp have lost market share and are experiencing heavy losses, according to DKN Research. JX Nippon Oil & Energy (a major metal and oil supplier) has decided to close its PV silicon wafer business due to extreme global price competition. Uncertainty seems to reign everywhere. Many strategists are now working on improving efficiencies, finding new markets, and a resumption of growth in 2013.

For Americans, too? More cooperative activities reducing redundancy is needed between the IPC and the EIPC.

The EIPC made following announcement on Dec. 3: The EIPC has made an effort to provide the latest information on Standards for PCBs from Japan. The 4th edition was released at the JPCA Show in June 2011. The EIPC is encouraging the specialists in the European Electronic Industry to learn the knowledge that has been accumulated by the Japan Electronics Packaging and Circuits Association (JPCA) and documented in the Standard on Device Embedded Substrate Terminology Reliability Test/Design Guide Edition 4.0- JPCA-EB01 (2011) The English version of the document is on stock at the EIPC office in Maastricht, The Netherlands.

US Commitments

When I heard early this month that Foxconn (Hon Hai) chief Terry Gou offered to train Americans in electronic manufacturing I recalled one of Apple’s excuses for putting its production in Asia, much of which went to Foxconn which now has over a million workers. Apple stated that America just did not have a sufficient number of qualified and trained technicians and engineers (tens of thousands Apple said) available to build its products here.

Then I thought, why would Gou make this offer? He certainly has not shown himself to be a good Samaritan in the past. The only conclusion I could reach was that he was planning to establish assembly operations in the US and would need a qualified work force to achieve this. Note that production of iPad minis are behind schedule and market demand. Labor costs have risen rapidly and continually in the PRC over the past five years. Hon Hai has been plagued with labor problems and a high factory worker suicide rate in China during the past few years. Gou reportedly is reported to be conducting evaluations in cities such as Detroit and Los Angeles where there is a large available labor pool. It should be noted that Foxconn has debunked the stories associated with the possible establishment of a US manufacturing base. But then, is it possible that Mr. Gou has become a good Samaritan when it comes to helping the US’s manufacturing capabilities?

Meanwhile, Gou, at a recent public event, noted that the company is planning a training program for US-based engineers, bringing them to Taiwan or China to gain first hand experience in the processes of learning product design and manufacturing. He has already been in touch with MIT regarding the program. They will also be in an environment to learn Chinese.

All this begs the question: Where are the American companies, government agencies, and elected officials that claim that they want to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US? Where is the commitment? Where is the investment? What steps are being taken to entice American manufacturers to the table? What motivation is being offered? If a foreign company can find it attractive to do so, why can’t an American company find it so, too? Even more interesting is the question, “What is the U.S. government doing to keep its current manufacturing base viable and growing?”

Is Japan’s interconnect future on shaky ground? Third-quarter results from Taiwan’s leading board makers (suppliers to Apple, automotive companies, and tablet makers) indicate that the center of HDI manufacturing has already undergone a major shift from Japan toward Taiwan and China. Taiwan’s government has been extremely supportive of this and other high-tech activities and investment by its “native” electronic (and other) companies.

“Rumors” persist that Taiyo is attempting to buy Goo Chemical in Japan. Goo owns 51% of OTC, Taiyo’s leading solder mask competitor in greater China.

EMS Q3: Cloudy, with a Chance of Pitfalls

Checking our pool of 30 or so publicly traded EMS companies that have thus far reported third-quarter earnings, we see an industry that is decidedly mixed.

Exactly half of those in our pool reported net income rose over last year. And 16 said sales are higher.

Of the Tier 1s, Foxconn and Jabil said sales were up, and Foxconn and Flextronics saw higher profits. Celestica and Sanmina-SCI saw revenues fall while Plexus’ and Benchmark’s rose. However, all but Sanmina took profit hits.

Confused yet?

The mid tier EMS groups were no easier to divine. On the larger side, Nam Tai and IMI had great quarters all around, Kimball saw operating profits and sales climb, and Venture’s sales ticked up too (it hasn’t reported profits yet), but Fabrinet (whose recovery continues) saw both figures slip. Key Tronic was up, CTS was down. Scanfil was up, Note was down. Neways was up, PartnerTech was down.

You get the idea.

The good news is, most companies, especially the larger ones, saw higher revenues in the third quarter than they did in the first. This could be another sign that the traditional seasonality has returned, which would be welcome at least because it makes things a little more predictable.

In listening to the various analyst calls and poring over the quarterly reports, it seems many companies reaped the benefit of existing programs in the September period, while those who didn’t were plagued mostly by new product starts, which are a drag on earnings. The former could hide some deeper some concerns, because all programs eventually come to an end, and if overall launches are on the decline, it could spell trouble down the road. This could be why several EMS companies, which collectively tend to be a bit gunshy bunch anyway, warned that the December quarter might be slower than the last.

Check out Board Talk, our new bulletin board: theprintedcircuitboard.com


Troubled Waters Ahead

Disputes between China and Japan over ownership of several small islets, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China,  are increasing and threatening to draw the U.S. into a potential fire-fight and conflict between 2 of the world’s top 3 economies. Violent anti-Japan protests this past week are threatening the $300 billion annual economic ties between the two nations. A wide range of firms from electronics giants Sony and Panasonic to Japan’s big three carmakers — Toyota, Honda and Nissan — temporarily halted production at some or all of their China-based plants.

Japanese electronics (and other) manufacturers are reported to be making a beeline to the Philippines. These include Furukawa Electric, Murata Manufacturing, and Brother Industries. The Philippine’s Trade and Industry Undersecretary Cristino Panlilio stated that the government is also soliciting suppliers of these Japanese companies in order to nurture local supply chains.

Job creation. Foxconn’s newly announced venture near Sao Paulo, Brazil, is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs by 2016. One has to wonder whether Americans or Europeans will provide the basis of their necessary supply chain needed for the announced board, part, and device production. Or, will a new “home grown” series of material and specialty chemical suppliers be the end result? Will production assembly equipment come from Europe? America, China, or Asia? The numbers will be big!

Samsung toeing the mark? Following its recent loss IP suit loss to Apple, Samsung announced that it would audit working conditions at 249 Chinese subcontractors and suppliers, including 105 that produce goods solely for Samsung. This major decision, coupled with Apple’s main provider Hon Hai’s (Foxconn Technology Group) decision to tackle working condition violations among its 1.2 million workers assembling iPhones and iPads, are certain to change the way that Western and other “foreign” companies do business in China. Samsung stated that it would terminate contracts with suppliers that do not take corrective actions when found and notified of violations of Samsung’s labor and working condition policies.

No Laugh Riot

Like the NFL officiating, it just keeps getting worse.

At least 40 Foxconn workers are reportedly in Chinese hospitals today following a late night riot at the company’s massive campus in Taiyuan, a city in northern China.

Workers apparently took matters into their own hands after company guards reportedly badly beat at least one employee. Photos from the scene uploaded to China’s version of Twitter, which Chinese official moved quickly to censor, showed hundreds of employees and police in riot gear, and in one case, an overturned guard building.

Many blue-chip OEMs rely on Foxconn to manage the better part of their supply chain, and have continued to do so despite longstanding accusations of worker abuse. Apple, so far, has survived the heat, although the flames get hotter by the day. But for struggling companies like Dell and HP, the question must again be asked: Is this relationship good for your brand? Or is it time to take a stand against what is clearly an counterproductive business plan?

The EMS-to-OEM Transition

We list more than 2,400 sites on our Directory of Electronics Manufacturing Services Companies. Of  them, I would hazard to say at least 15 to 20% now offer some form of ODM/OEM work.

It’s not always who you’d think, either. While the obvious companies are there — Foxconn, Pegatron, Wistron, Flextronics, etc. — more and more smaller firms are joining the fun. Everyone from Hunter Technology, which builds discrete RF/microwave components in California, to Mikroelektronika, which makes fare boxes in the Czech Republic, are involved in some sort of original design manufacture or outright OEM work.

At some point I’ll sit down and count out the exact number. Suffice it to say, it will be significant. EMS firms never sit still.

No Rest for EMS

Look out Apple — Foxconn is encroaching on your turf.

The company, which already boasts a chain of retail outlets, plans to expand into everything from software apps to a broadband satellite network. Much like Verizon, Comcast and others in the US, the EMS firm is working with local municipalities to build out the network.

Moreover, it has big plans to develop apps for smartphones, tablets and TV.

EMS companies don’t stand still. They can’t make money making solder joints. OEMs that want to protect their future should reconsider the extent to which they should be enabling  their suppliers.